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Thoughts on current priced of the vintage ARAH line, buy or wait?

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Old 02-23-2021, 06:12 PM   #11
HitandRun
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I'd say the real inflation of prices started around 2016/2017 when I was getting back into collecting and prices have continued to climb. There are still common vehicles and figures that can be bought for reasonable to low prices in good condition. But when tracking down popular complete near mint figures and vehicles you are going to pay a premium.

Buying large LOTS is one way to accumulate a collection quickly. You can always sell off what you do not need or want and keep the figures/parts you want. It's probably the most cost effective way to collect.

COVID probably played a small role in price increases and inflation but even before COVID the vintage price of Joes was rising rapidly. If you are patient you will have some success. I wouldn't wait though - just try to make good decisions, keep an eye for LOTs.
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Old 02-23-2021, 06:22 PM   #12
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Quote:
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COVID probably played a small role in price increases and inflation but even before COVID the vintage price of Joes was rising rapidly.
I believe you that prices were on the rise beforehand, but I think COVID played more than a small role in the recent surges. As people are trapped at home with lots of free time and little to do, they're feeling nostalgic for their youth and falling back into old hobbies. That is 100% what brought me back to collecting after 15 years away.
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Old 02-23-2021, 06:39 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HitandRun View Post
I'd say the real inflation of prices started around 2016/2017 when I was getting back into collecting and prices have continued to climb. There are still common vehicles and figures that can be bought for reasonable to low prices in good condition. But when tracking down popular complete near mint figures and vehicles you are going to pay a premium.

Buying large LOTS is one way to accumulate a collection quickly. You can always sell off what you do not need or want and keep the figures/parts you want. It's probably the most cost effective way to collect.

COVID probably played a small role in price increases and inflation but even before COVID the vintage price of Joes was rising rapidly. If you are patient you will have some success. I wouldn't wait though - just try to make good decisions, keep an eye for LOTs.
Yes I'd say around 2017-18 is when things really started getting expensive. 2016 was still bargain city.

And unfortunately, it's not just eBay. The local shops and the smaller conventions mostly have inflated Joe prices also.
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Old 02-23-2021, 06:43 PM   #14
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I started getting back into vintage in fall of 2008. I had to go get all of my old stuff out of my mom’s attic after hurricane Sandy washed out the first floor. At first I was only looking to plug the gaps in the 25th collection but really got into vintage restorations. I started at 82 and worked my way upward. I figured the earlier figures were the most expensive (on average) and my older figures where in worse shape than my later ones. So I stared with the most expensive stuff first. I’m now at 87 and man am I happy I got what I did when it did! I really feel for anyone who has gotten into it in the past few years.

I noticed the jump in prices after the last movie (Retaliation) figures were off shelves and assumed modern collectors fell back to vintage to fill the void. I also hoped the new Retro collection would win back modern collectors and vintage sales would deflate a bit. The new line seems sort of meh so I guess unless they really roll out something great for that new line we can count on vintage prices staying as they are.
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Old 02-23-2021, 07:20 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by BeachheadMatt View Post
Yes I'd say around 2017-18 is when things really started getting expensive. 2016 was still bargain city.

And unfortunately, it's not just eBay. The local shops and the smaller conventions mostly have inflated Joe prices also.
I think that local shops and everything are also driving up the prices. It's easy for someone to just walk in the shop and buy something from his childhood and not really know anything about the price. This in turn drives up prices over all because then everyone wants those prices!

Mostly I've stuck to buying at shows or conventions. It gives me something to look for when I'm walking through the vendor halls.
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Old 02-25-2021, 03:13 PM   #16
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I think it is worth noting that on this topic that there were two jumps in pricing that happened in the past few years.

The first one was likely due to collectors reaching the ages of 40-55 that began buying them up with a lot of disposable income to work with. Based upon people's posts this likely happened ~2013-2016 and significantly raised the average cost of figures/vehicles vs. what people were accustomed to paying. (This happened with 12" 10+ years earlier)

The second big price jump did happen in 2020 due to a mix of factors with people being isolated and delving into hobbies to keep busy as well as the stimulus payments.

I think the world opening back up post-widespread vaccination will likely curb some of the effects of the 2nd jump, but probably won't reverse the first jump as much until an aging-out occurs as noted by someone in this post.

I remember paying $10-12 for complete vintage figures in excellent condition w/ file cards back around 2000 and most were worth ~$25 each at the start of 2020. Many of those are now going for ~$45 each. I'm guessing that in a year or two prices will be back closer to the ~$25 level (although likely more like $30-35), but probably not back to the ~$10 level for a long time.
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Old 02-25-2021, 06:31 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by zentropa View Post
I think it is worth noting that on this topic that there were two jumps in pricing that happened in the past few years.

The first one was likely due to collectors reaching the ages of 40-55 that began buying them up with a lot of disposable income to work with. Based upon people's posts this likely happened ~2013-2016 and significantly raised the average cost of figures/vehicles vs. what people were accustomed to paying. (This happened with 12" 10+ years earlier)

The second big price jump did happen in 2020 due to a mix of factors with people being isolated and delving into hobbies to keep busy as well as the stimulus payments.

I think the world opening back up post-widespread vaccination will likely curb some of the effects of the 2nd jump, but probably won't reverse the first jump as much until an aging-out occurs as noted by someone in this post.

I remember paying $10-12 for complete vintage figures in excellent condition w/ file cards back around 2000 and most were worth ~$25 each at the start of 2020. Many of those are now going for ~$45 each. I'm guessing that in a year or two prices will be back closer to the ~$25 level (although likely more like $30-35), but probably not back to the ~$10 level for a long time.
I'd say that sweet spot for ARAH collectors was from 2000-2010. I can remember buying figures/vehicles around 2005/2006 for a really reasonable price. I fell out of the vintage collecting for about decade for ME stuff and once I got back into it in 2017 I was surprised at the price jump and even being active in collecting for the past 4 years it still amazes me to see prices rise.

I am not a 12" collector - has that market's bubble burst?
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Old 02-25-2021, 09:26 PM   #18
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It seems to be up all over the board! Star Wars modern and vintage, Marvel Legends, NECA Aliens & Predators, even Ninja Turtles!
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Old 02-25-2021, 10:52 PM   #19
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Old 02-25-2021, 10:57 PM   #20
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I get vintage price jumps.

I don’t get FSS price jumps.

Dial tone FSS goes for $500 MOC. I can get get a graded ‘86 for damn near that.

FSS were cool, but not vintage priced cool.
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