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01-02-2014, 06:13 PM | #1 |
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Recent comments are suggesting a 2015 release date for GI Joe 3, assuming production is as brisk as Retaliation's.
But when could or should the film see release? Here's a look at the CURRENT (as of the time I'm posting this) slate of 2015 releases, and how they might impact Joe's chance of success (I'm currently assuming the return of all principal cast like Johnson and Willis and a budget of about $130 million): February-If in low faith of the project, Paramount could dump it in the late winter much as what was done with Die Hard 5. In that respect, there is VERY little action fare to be had at this stage, but healthy competition from, ahem, "anticipated" adaption Fifty Shades of Grey and Paramount's own Spongebob SquarePants 2. Low Chance of release unless the final product ends up being god awful to a greater degree than the prevailing view of the current Joe and Transformers films. March- Paramount actually ended up ahead by releasing Joe 2 as an early start to the summer blockbusters (and the added 3D made up any domestic deficiencies with a greater international gross, ultimately allowing the film to make MORE than Rise of Cobra). Currently slated titles: The Secret Service- Written and directed by Matt Vaughn (Kick-Ass and X-Men: First Class). A spy film with Michael Caine, Colin Firth and Sam Jackson. Insurgent- What I can find points to something akin to Hunger Games or The Host, likely targeting the same demographic (sequel to a film due THIS March) Cinderella- A Live Action reimagining of the classic tale and Disney film. Penguins of Madagascar- Spin off with the popular penguins (who had their own TV show) Friday the 13th- Horror sequel/reboot. April- Not a typically huge month, again, Joe 2 did well hitting at the end of March and had April largely to itself in its demographic target. Insidious Chapter 3- Horror sequel Passengers- Keanu Reeves scifi film. Fast and Furious 7- Bumped from 2014 due to Paul Walker's death May-July- Avengers 2, 'nuff said. Though "Tomorrowland" could be an x-factor, but given the weak performance of many recent Disney live action spectacles (Lone Ranger, Prince of Persia, even Tron and Pirates to varying degrees) it is hard to determine to what effect. Also hitting are Mad Max and Monster Trucks (animated feature from one of the guys behind Ice Age) June brings BOO (think CGI animated Ghostbusters) and sequels/reboots Jurassic World, Ted 2 and The Fantastic Four July sees Minions (Despicable Me spin off), Ant-Man and World's Finest (Superman/Batman) AND Terminator Genesis (reboot) August-Current slate is light for August, with Assassin's Creed and Smurfs 3. A new Bourne film is slated, but doesn't even have a title yet. Among all that, Paramount's only releases between March and July are Friday the 13th (a horror reboot), Monster Trucks and Terminator Genesis. The catch there is that there is a LOT of heavy competition hitting in April through July. From a box office perspective, my best bets are either March (repeat what they did well with Retaliation) or gamble on August (possible audience fatigue, but less competition for mindshare with all the big stuff already released). In the case of March, the big x-factor is going to be Insurgent. Paramount isn't going to want to counter Friday the 13th (as horror films tend to be very frontloaded anyway, not to mention the marketing angle), and Penguins of Madagascar are an established and well liked property. But the last several attempts to tape into the Hunger Games/Twilight demographic have, well, bombed (The Host, Mortal Instruments, Beautiful Creatures, etc). And if Divergent flops this March, Insurgent might not even be produced, leaving a solid mid-March date for GI Joe 3 to take. While still crushed by Penguins, it would still offer a compelling counter-programming choice prior to the release of Fast 7 in early April (Chappie, from the director of Elysium and District 9 is due against Penguins, but I still think Joe has a good chance as a more "general audience" appeal) April is a death knell with Fast 7 early on, with Avengers 2 in early May. Joe would have maybe one good weekend before being completely overwhelmed. The prospects only get worse in July and August. The catch with July though, is Terminator Genesis. While slated for release, it is a BIG project, an expensive project, and like Star Trek and Star Wars, could EASILY see production delays If Terminator sees a major delay (thus vacating its lucrative Fourth of July release slot), Joe 3 could easily be bumped to take its spot, especially if the delay is prevalent by the time Joe 3 enters production later this year. August would be another strong contender. While consumers would be fatigued of all the big action spectacles, Joe would NOT have to deal with the specter of major releases like Avengers 2 or World's Finest. In addition, the only major releases slated are Assassin's Creed (which has iffy chances given the weak reception to Prince of Persia and prior game based films in general) and Smurfs 3 (last one was a domestic flop, and showed diminished returns from the successful first film). Joe is established franchise whose last installment was fairly well liked (and did well internationally) From a TOY perspective, I'm sure Hasbro would much prefer either July or August, as it would allow them to get Joe onto shelves in time with other major movie lines, or at LEAST be on shelves during the fall resets with boost the late fall DVD push would provide with Christmas. Again, I think Paramount is in better position with an early spring (mid-late March) release, but Hasbro would likely prefer a later summer release. There's my ramble on Joe 3's position, what do you all think?
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01-02-2014, 06:18 PM | #2 |
Crimson Guard
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 1,866
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I think anytime before July would be extremely rushed. It doesn't even sound like there's a script yet. I don't think they'll even go into production until early summer at the earliest. I can see them trying for August or even holding back until spring 2016.
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01-02-2014, 06:24 PM | #3 |
Gunslinger
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: MidWorld
Posts: 38,081
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They'll have the movie all prepped and ready for a late August release, then suddenly realize that there's more money to be had if they upgrade the film to 4D with Smell-o-vision and delay it again until April 2016.
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01-02-2014, 06:29 PM | #4 |
The Man You Know & Love
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I really wish Hasbro and Paramount thought like you.
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01-02-2014, 06:34 PM | #5 |
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Quote:
The fact we have a confirmed writer and director before 2014 already puts the film a few months ahead of Retaliation at the same time in 2011. Assuming filming starts this summer, a March date is quite doable (especially with 3D being in from the start), and I can point to MANY films which had just as abbreviated production cycles (not the least of which was Rise of Cobra, which started filming in the fall of 2008 without a finished script or much preproduction). Again, March would be a rush, but not undoable.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRealDubya
Any sort of panic at this stage is just pure unsubstantiated reptile brain stem fear.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokePants
This is why companies are secretive -- because we all want the truth, but most of us cannot handle it.
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01-02-2014, 06:37 PM | #6 |
Cobra Viper
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: AMERICA!
Posts: 253
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Personally I think late july or early August would be best since March is crowded, April has Fast and Furious, May has Avengers 2 among others, and July has Batman/Superman. So yeah late July or August. But really 2016 looks like a better release date speaking from a business standpoint.
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01-02-2014, 07:00 PM | #7 |
Cobra Viper
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: NOVA, somtimes an outpost on Iacon
Posts: 166
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Let's go with August 2015! It gives time for hasbro to plan and such.
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01-03-2014, 04:05 AM | #8 |
I love ROSS!!!
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Southern Cali
Posts: 6,831
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We'll get the movie figures a year later.
Thanks Hasblo. LOL. :P
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01-03-2014, 07:01 AM | #9 |
Crimson Guard
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Minnesota
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My wife's family used to run a discout theater and this is based on my conversations with her.
August just isn't a good time for farming credits from movie releases. There's a reason expectant blockbusters are released May through July as that is prime movie season. Good movies aren't often scheduled in August and September. I would try to avoid this time if I could possibly do so. Likewise there is no point to trying to complete with better recieved franchises like Batman/Superman, Avengers, etc. I would try to push for a March or early April release.
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01-03-2014, 08:24 PM | #10 |
I.O. SpecOps
Join Date: Nov 2007
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Just pick a date and stick with it. Retaliation got rushed to avoid competition just to get pushed back near the original date. That caused the toys to get rushed as well. If they had stuck to the original date, we may have seen wave 1-2 look more like wave 3-4. The only thing they can control is the quality of the movie they release. You never know when the other movies will change their release date.
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