How do you know what figure(s) will become rare?

I'm sure it's been covered, but how do you determine which figure in an assortment will be the rare one? Like Flint for example? I know it's mainly one per case, but most of them are. So how do you know?

Sometimes you do not know. If it is a variant then that is a different story. Such as the case with snake eyes w/blk timber and yellow stalker.The one thing to remember is that Hasbro will pump out the figs again. This was the case with star wars. The variants are the ones to get.

The lower the number made of any certian Joe determines a lot. They made less girl Joes back in the day, so they were worth more. Thats why it took over ten years for me to track down a Baroness!

you don't know, rarity comes after the fact. SE's and SS v.2 went from peg warmers released in the first 3 waves and the bane of Joe collectors to being rare for a short period of time. don't overthink it, we don't know something or posses some special power that you do not.

Who knows? Convention exclusives, drivers that came with expensive vehicles, figures that are initially unpopular but gain a following over time?

If we could tell beforehand how rare a figure will be, everyone would rush out and buy it and it would cease to be rare.
Personally I don't care what my my Joes are worth on the market. I'll buy the ones I want based on how much I want them as opposed to how rare they may be one day. Try to second guess the market and a lot of fun goes out of the hobby

i don't know if it makes sense but i tend to base it off of vintage figures and the ones of those that are rare or high valued...for instance i see ss wave 4 becoming valued much like firefly...same with SE wave one, flint...the core guys....revision cases do throw a wrench in that

Wave 4 was just kind of a filler wave and besides Air Trooper they haven't been in any other waves. Correct me if I'm wrong, so those figs might end up going up in value in the near future.

you have to use your intuition. so far i've been able to personally predict which ones from 25th will become the chase figs. a really really easy way to tell which ones are going to be the most popular is to check brians toys price guide and ebay. the afa joes that are selling for 1 grand and up, those are hot 25th figs. go figure!!!! I PERSONALLY believe hasbro got ahold of brians toys price guide and built what to release for 25th figs off that. everything is just awesome right now with g i joe though, i could never complain about 5 packs , 2 packs, single packs there all cool. maybe they'll bring back real plastic instead of rubber joints though lol that would be the cream. it's best also to collect WHAT YOU LIKE, unless you are in the toy business of buying, trading, and selling.

i always shudder when threads like this pop up. Makes me a think a scalper is just nosing around.

hahaaha didn't think of it like that?? lol so they can run out buy them and sell them on ebay. lol