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View Poll Results: How Much Does the G.I. Joe movie Have to Earn to Get a Sequel? | |||
$200 million | 50 | 60.24% | |
$300 million | 24 | 28.92% | |
$400 million | 5 | 6.02% | |
$500 million + | 4 | 4.82% | |
Voters: 83. You may not vote on this poll |
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03-26-2009, 06:17 PM | #1 |
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There is little doubt that the success of Transformers propelled the G.I. Joe movie to get greenlit and fast-tracked into production, as well as get it a hefty $170 million dollar budget ($20 million more than I believe the first TF's movie -- WTF?!?).
the problem is, with that budget, the movie has to also earn that back and more to warrant a sequel. in comparrison, TF's grossed over $700 million worldwide, but "live action" transforming robots is a more interesting and accessible premise than G.I. Joe. so, how much do you guys think the movie will have to make worldwide to be considered a success and warrant a sequel? $200 million? $300 million? $500 million? personally, I think reaching $300 million is a tall order for this movie. I think Paramount and Hasbro have misread the similarities between G.I. Joe and Transformers in projecting the potential for a G.I. Joe movie. I think this movie has very limited appeal in comparison to TF's, not to mention that opening in August doesn't help (though it isn't as much of a death sentence as some want to make it out). and I don't think $300 will be enough, especially, again, in comparison to TF's. not to mention the fact that to even reach that the movie would probably have to draw around $60 million opening weekend, which again I think is a tall order because more than likely it will sink like a brick like Watchmen after opening weekend. |
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03-26-2009, 06:23 PM | #2 |
JOES BEFORE HOES
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i think as long as it makes more than they spent, they will spawn a sequal...and as long as the toys rake in tons of extra cash, which is really the whole reason they made this hour and half long commercial to begin with, all will be good to them...
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03-26-2009, 06:30 PM | #3 |
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My take is that box office gross will only be one factor in whether a sequel is produced. Keep in mind both Fantastic Four and Hulk got sequels/remakes despite mediocre reviews and box office take, based a LARGE part on merchandising revenues and DVD sales.
I think the associated merchandise will be a significant factor in getting a sequel. I figure a $250 million domestic combined with strong toy figure sales, Hasbro might be able to pressure a sequel (especially with Transformers 3 not due until 2012 and a Star Trek sequel still iffy), doubly so depending on DVD sales. My concern is not necessarily how the movie is recieved, but in how late it is coming. First week of August is a bit late in the season for a big tie in blockbuster film, and I think that might hurt the film more than anything else.
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03-26-2009, 06:32 PM | #4 |
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lower than 200 will get a sequel.
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03-26-2009, 06:37 PM | #5 |
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The poll isn't very accurate. I heard somewhere that when ads, distribution, and everyone else involved gets their cut, a movie has to make three times what it cost to break even. DVD has changed that a great deal, but it's still not a set dollar amount, more like a percentage in relation to what any given movie cost to make. A low budget movie could easily get a sequal if it ends up enough in the black.
Edit: Okay, we're talking about the Joe movie specifically. Since 400 million is unlikely, this will depend a great deal on DVD sales and merchandising. Not everything is box-office numbers. |
03-26-2009, 06:42 PM | #6 |
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$150 domestic will do it. This movie will likely increase its take worldwide by 50%, which takes it to $225. I don't see that being too much to ask. I think it's a foregone conclusion that there will be a sequel to this movie. I'd bet they're counting on this to do what TF did for business, which is that the interest in anything TF related sold out. My TRU had old G1 reissues on clearance, and after opening weekend, there was literally NOTHING left. If it does that, it means less revision cases on the pegs, but more people hunting, and another movie to help push toys.
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03-26-2009, 06:53 PM | #7 |
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03-26-2009, 09:47 PM | #8 |
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This movie is going to need a miracle from God just to break even. Mainly for all the bad rep it's getting before any one can see it. I'm still gonna see it, just to see the name G.I. JOE on the big screen. I hope it does well, for the sake of the toys. I honestly would rather see a low budget straight to dvd movie more true to what we grew up with then another Hollywood movie.
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03-26-2009, 09:50 PM | #9 |
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Well, it can't be too much... There are somne serious crap flicks out there that somehow managed to have sequels made.
Batman and Robin anyone?
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03-27-2009, 07:22 AM | #10 |
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Quote:
This movie is going to need a miracle from God just to break even. Mainly for all the bad rep it's getting before any one can see it. I'm still gonna see it, just to see the name G.I. JOE on the big screen. I hope it does well, for the sake of the toys. I honestly would rather see a low budget straight to dvd movie more true to what we grew up with then another Hollywood movie.
The "sequel formula" is pretty simple in most cases: If it makes or exceeds its' (publicly stated) budget in domestic box office take, it'll probably get a sequel. If it makes half its' budget or more back on opening weekend, it'll probably get "fast tracked" and they'll have a sequel announcement that next week. So basically, if G.I. Joe gets $170 million plus in domestic (US) box office, we'll probably get a sequel. Maybe a little less if the toy sales and later DVD sales are good. "Hollywood Math" is famous for being completely incomprehensible. Hollywood can spin virtually any movie into being a success or failure as they see fit, but supposedly there are very few movies that don't make money somehow or another. Don't assume that the economic crisis is hurting box office sales, either. January and February had record breaking total sales this year, and March has remained strong (though not quite record breaking, I don't think). During the Great Depression, the movie industry was one of the few that flourished. People like to believe otherwise, but aside from the August release date (which as GSCBR points out isn't nearly as "bad" as some people are making it out to be), the G.I. Joe movie is primed for success. It's a "weak" year for summer blockbusters, but people are still going to the movies. Personally, I think "Star Trek" and "Transformers 2" are going to be duking it out for the top spot of the summer, but G.I. Joe is all-too-likely to do quite well at the box office, by the time all is said and done. |
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