25th Price Guide

[Sneak_Peek]

Spring 2008

All prices for MOC figures unless noted

Wave 1

Flint $43-$47
Snake Eyes & Timber $18-$21
Storm Shadow $12-$14
Cobra Officer $11-$15
Hooded Cobra Commander $4-7

Wave 2

Beach Head $10-$13
Buzzer $4-$7
Lady Jaye $11-$14
Serpentor $8-$12
Cobra Trooper $7-$10

Wave 3

Stalker $11-$14
Shipwreck $10-$14
Firefly $18-$21
Red Ninja $11-$14
Zartan $14-$17

Wave 4

Duke $10-$14
Scarlett $10-$14
Roadblock $7-$13
Gung-Ho $9-$12
Cobra Commander $11-$13
Destro $11-$13
Storm Shadow $14-$20
Cobra Air Trooper $9-$13

Wave 5

Snow Job $10-$13
Snake Eyes $14-$16
Flash $19-$21
Crimson Guard $12-$13
Destro IG $10-$13

Wave 6

Cobra Commander Armored $12-$14
Rock N Roll $11-$13
Torpedo $12-$14

Misc

Doc mail-away $48-$52

Loose Figures

Grunt $10-$13

Variants

Snake Eyes (black Timber) $96-$126
Stalker (yellow) $304-$356
Shipwreck (shark tattoo) $29-$38
Gung-Ho (anchor hat) $95-$120
? - Hooded Cobra Commander $100+
? - Doc mail-away variant $100+

[Sniper]

I like the idea. I'm not sure how long these prices will hold true because these things change prices from week to week.

[VIPER 48]

I think it is a great idea...

[vadersquest]

I say continue with the price guide.

[Wyo]

Yeah, I think your doing a good job. I like the idea too.

[dawg99]

good idea 4 sure

[K.B.]

While it's a great idea and I say continue, does anyone here read toyfare? If so how do these prices match up with the ones they list?

[245am]

welcome to the board by the way...
sounds like a great idea, I say if it interests you and you think it'd help out, go for it... it's a hobby and all the odd things like excel spreadsheets that go along with collecting are part of the fun!

As for your stated methods, some caveats that come to mind. I've seen a lot of variance in prices for a given figure and ebay prices tend to be higher than average, so that sample may not be the the most representative and you may have some pretty skewed numbers. Also, I'm, curious about using the statistics behind this; I don't remember much about the t-distribution, but is that "Student's T distribution?" Is that for when you have much smaller sample sizes (which could be another problem with ebay, and doing this in general). Also, I'm not sure why you have a confidence interval? Are you comparing means? Help me make some sense of this. I'm not a stats whiz, but I'm confused by what you outlined...

[jarodgates]

I always found when I price items I check the average price on Ebay. If the highest going is $40 and lower is around $15 (A lot of items are like that) I go in between and say $25 then I check a price guide. Lets say in this case it says $45. Then I add the $25 and the $45 and divide by 2. Then I will usually knock off 15% - 20% of that. This gives me a more accurate (I think) price.

When you try to figure out prices you cant just do stats from one source. You have to factor in other price information, i.e a price guide if it is available. Also prices vary a lot depending on where you are. I know people in TX do not pay the same as people in NY for the same item. One region may have a surplus of an item and it may not be worth anything there. Another place may be dry and people are willing to pay more.

[Elite Force Cobra]

I like the idea. I'm not sure how long these prices will hold true because these things change prices from week to week.

i think it's an awsome idea, but like he said it will change week to week because ebay is a supply and demand based sales area, for instance sigma 6 CC silver cape used to be worth 75$+ when all u had was like three on ebay listed...then more got released, took it down to like 16 +, so if 4 people have black timber online it might base of the highest price so people who add it after him want theres to sell faster so they lower it a little, then lets say a week later 10 people list theres all together not knowing....well it might bring it down to 70 80...kinda sucks how it works but it's damn near a stock market on ebay, i think your idea is kool and would say statistics are great but if u do the formulas in the database spread sheet make it so u can change the #'s so it doesn't get outdated to fast and u can update it, i would like to see all the waves done and surly would save your price guide as a good reference! Thanks!

[samjjones]

Everybody save Doc: $4.88-$6.99
Doc: $4.99

[arch2b]

how does this account for revision cases? for example, flint was released in revision cases which alters the availability thus the price for the original case release. how do you verify case release if your argument is that the original case release still retains a higher value?

then there is the extensive list of variants as shown in the 25th checklist, etc., 2 peg stand, 1 peg stand, reflective card, non reflective car, etc. etc.

[spacemonkeymafia]

Yeah but Ebay is not the goto price guide......like your Idea but Toyfair Mag. has always been what I used......

[spacemonkeymafia]

Everybody save Doc: $4.88-$6.99
Doc: $4.99

Thank you ...........$60 for a Flint please.....thank god Ive been hooked up here because I will never pay that much for anything that is a Toy.....Unless its org price was $60 or more.

[hamilcar]

While it's a great idea and I say continue, does anyone here read toyfare? If so how do these prices match up with the ones they list?

to me, Toyfare seems way high on everything. they don't have any figures at under $8, and figures that most people can't give away on eBay (Buzzer, Serpentor, etc.) at $10. they also have the comic packs too high, with SE vs SS the only one listed under $15. just all around, too high. they seem to be pretty close on the rarer figures (Flint $30, Firefly $20, etc), though. and i'm comparing this to the secondary market prices, not retail, which is what a price guide is supposed to have. just having retail prices in a price guide is useless, since these things are used by either people selling them n the secondary market or people buying them on the secondary market. no one goes into Target and busts out a Toyfare to see if they are getting a good deal. prices don't vary at retail.

[Sneak_Peek]

Just updated with Wave 3 prices.

As for your stated methods, some caveats that come to mind. I've seen a lot of variance in prices for a given figure and ebay prices tend to be higher than average, so that sample may not be the the most representative and you may have some pretty skewed numbers. Also, I'm, curious about using the statistics behind this; I don't remember much about the t-distribution, but is that "Student's T distribution?" Is that for when you have much smaller sample sizes (which could be another problem with ebay, and doing this in general). Also, I'm not sure why you have a confidence interval? Are you comparing means? Help me make some sense of this. I'm not a stats whiz, but I'm confused by what you outlined...

Yes I mean the Student-t. You would use it if the data are not distributed normally, or with a small sample size where you don't know if the data is distributed normally. As far as the confidence interval, when I look up the value on the T-table, you have to pick a CI (90,95,99). I used 95. So 95% of the time the value will fall within the that range.


When you try to figure out prices you cant just do stats from one source. You have to factor in other price information, i.e a price guide if it is available. Also prices vary a lot depending on where you are. I know people in TX do not pay the same as people in NY for the same item. One region may have a surplus of an item and it may not be worth anything there. Another place may be dry and people are willing to pay more.

I mostly agree, but I think eBay is really the goto place for this kind of thing, and it gives a sample representative of the entire country. It would be way too hard to sit down and do a regional price guide for each region and even harder to get the data. I mean if I can't get it at Target/Wal-Mart (which most of us can't) then I goto eBay.

i think it's an awsome idea, but like he said it will change week to week because ebay is a supply and demand based sales area, for instance sigma 6 CC silver cape used to be worth 75$+ when all u had was like three on ebay listed...then more got released, took it down to like 16 +, so if 4 people have black timber online it might base of the highest price so people who add it after him want theres to sell faster so they lower it a little, then lets say a week later 10 people list theres all together not knowing....well it might bring it down to 70 80...kinda sucks how it works but it's damn near a stock market on ebay, i think your idea is kool and would say statistics are great but if u do the formulas in the database spread sheet make it so u can change the #'s so it doesn't get outdated to fast and u can update it, i would like to see all the waves done and surly would save your price guide as a good reference! Thanks!

I see your point, and some stuff does change really fast, but in my analysis, I actually noticed that a lot of the figures don't change much at all. You can see the prices for many of the regular figures are real tight, all within a few dollars (e.g. $11-$14). Variants on the other hand are all over the map, and have huge ranges. The price guide is more reliable when the figure has less variance in price, so doing a weekly analysis wouldn't be helpful because the sample size would decrease, and the variance would increase. I really think that doing it monthly would be the sweet spot, or even bimonthly, but not weekly.

how does this account for revision cases? for example, flint was released in revision cases which alters the availability thus the price for the original case release. how do you verify case release if your argument is that the original case release still retains a higher value?

Well, as far as MOC figures go, the market doesn't seem to care what case it came from, they just want Flint. The price for Flint in this price guide is one of the most reliable actually, my sample size was >50!

then there is the extensive list of variants as shown in the 25th checklist, etc., 2 peg stand, 1 peg stand, reflective card, non reflective car, etc. etc.

Again, the people buying these don't seem to care all that much about variations, unless the variant is extreme (e.g. yellow stalker, shark tattoo). I mean there doesn't seem to be a price difference for these minor variations so why list them separately with the same price.

Yeah but Ebay is not the goto price guide......like your Idea but Toyfair Mag. has always been what I used......

Yea but where does Toyfair get their data? For all I know they could be making it up, or guessing. It is my opinion that something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, so ebay is the perfect place to figure out what something is worth.

[jarodgates]

Ebay is by no means the ultimate source for prices. Things vary too much. People bid up their own stuff. It is by no means reliable. Talk to anyone here and they will say "I dont want to pay ebay prices". Why? They are usually inflated to the xx number. Lets not also forget the uneducated. There have been a number of 25th anny figures that were listed as variants that went for $$$ when they were nothing but manufacturing mistakes or fakes and joe blow thought wow a HTF figure.

[jarodgates]

As far as price guides go. Toyfare and Lee's actually do canvas local shops around the country to see what an item is going for and work whatever magic to produce a dollar amount. Again people in TX dont pay the same as those in CA. Also casual collectors tend to pay way more then you or I that have been doing collecting for awhile.

[Sneak_Peek]

Ebay is by no means the ultimate source for prices. Things vary too much. People bid up their own stuff. It is by no means reliable. Talk to anyone here and they will say "I dont want to pay ebay prices". Why? They are usually inflated to the xx number. Lets not also forget the uneducated. There have been a number of 25th anny figures that were listed as variants that went for $$$ when they were nothing but manufacturing mistakes or fakes and joe blow thought wow a HTF figure.

As far as price guides go. Toyfare and Lee's actually do canvas local shops around the country to see what an item is going for and work whatever magic to produce a dollar amount. Again people in TX dont pay the same as those in CA. Also casual collectors tend to pay way more then you or I that have been doing collecting for awhile.

Let me point out again that I only used auction prices in my analysis and not buy-it-now prices (except with yellow stalker because I needed more data). So, many of the outrageous "ebay prices" were not a part of the analysis. Even though Lee's and Toyfare may canvas shops around the country, they are still relying on the seller's price, and not the buyer. My analysis only includes prices that were set by the buyer. It seems to me that what someone is willing to pay for an item is more indicative of its value than what someone is selling for.

And I don't know, overall, they seem reasonable and accurate to me.

[Lord-Ironfist]

Actually they are all worth $6.99, but that is before the scalpers get them.

[hamilcar]

Actually they are all worth $6.99, but that is before the scalpers get them.

next person who replies that they are "worth 6.99" gets the booby prize. i don't mean to pick on you or anyone else, i am just tired of seeing that.

i think it is quite obvious that this is a price guide for secondary market. i, personally, have no interest in what they are worth, as i don't sell on the secondary market and buy very little on the secondary market. however, some people are interested - whether they can't find the figures at retail or they sell them (whatever your thoughts are on THAT, it is something that is done), and i think a price guide for that purpose is useful for those people, and if nothing else, entertaining for me.

[Elite Force Cobra]

whats your opinion on toyfare and toy preview magazine price guides? and yours?

[HOOSFN]

what is the Doc variant? Is it the guns and which one is rarer?

[spacemonkeymafia]

I like Toyfair......

[Blaster'spunchingbagg]

I always found when I price items I check the average price on Ebay. If the highest going is $40 and lower is around $15 (A lot of items are like that) I go in between and say $25 then I check a price guide. Lets say in this case it says $45. Then I add the $25 and the $45 and divide by 2. Then I will usually knock off 15% - 20% of that. This gives me a more accurate (I think) price.

When you try to figure out prices you cant just do stats from one source. You have to factor in other price information, i.e a price guide if it is available. Also prices vary a lot depending on where you are. I know people in TX do not pay the same as people in NY for the same item. One region may have a surplus of an item and it may not be worth anything there. Another place may be dry and people are willing to pay more.

I live in the LA area, there are about three collectible shops in the near county area. Their prices are ridiculous. I have never nor will I ever give them business. There's also a place that used to be open called kitty world? Strange name, you'd think cat products? but no they sell collectibles, and they miss price everything. When they had wave one the charged 14.99 for cobra trooper and 8.99 for everyone else incl. flint and black timber snake eyes. I'm not really sure why these figures are so hot or why folks are buying them up like no tomorrow but I guess its a good investment but whe I go on ebay, many things look like they don't sell. I don't sell on Ebay due to paypal fee's but do listings that no one bids on cost them money?

[spacemonkeymafia]

$8.99 isnt bad at all for some figs even when they were 4.99

[Elite Force Cobra]

Doc Variant??? didnt know one existed

[Sneak_Peek]

what is the Doc variant? Is it the guns and which one is rarer?

Doc Variant??? didnt know one existed

Yea, I don't know about this, but there were 3 or 4 Doc's that went for over $100 and they were all sold as variants. Otherwise, the Doc price is pretty steady, so I separated them. Do you guys think it's bunk. Should I take it off?

Also, I am under the impression that all comic packs are worth $10-$15, no matter what. What do you guys think?

The Target exclusives might be worth doing, but I think the only thing of collector value from TRU so far is Grunt. His loose figure always fetches a decent price, but the whole Joe leadership package or whatever doesn't get much more. It's all about Grunt. What do you guys think?

[heatviper]

i think price is all within the eyes of the owner, if someone will pay 60 dollars for flint then that isnt really what hes worth its what people will pay for him, i just sold flint for 14 dollars did i rip myself off, no because the guy i hooked up will turn around and do the same for me, we as collectors need to hook each other up so we dont fall prey to scalpers or ebay prices, but i like the price guide idea

[Sneak_Peek]

So do i let this die?

[Elite Force Cobra]

keep rockin the guide! i want a copy :)

[kilowatt]

Yeah, keep it going, I think it make for an interesting discussion.

[Sneak_Peek]

Updated with wave 5 and 6

[Agent-GHQ]

Were these prices based on the sales of e-tailers, eBay, and swap meets?

[Sneak_Peek]

What next?

[SPECTER]

Why is Flint so much? hes a peg warmer at Kmart.

[mackdawg77]

why is Flint so expensive?